Thursday, May 8, 2008

Western Conference Preview: Dallas vs. Detroit

Alright, so I promised an explanation of my "educated guess" regarding the WC Finals, with the Dallas Stars going up against the President's Trophy winning Detroit Red Wings.

Let's look at a couple key statistics. First, the Goals Against / Game, Power Play, and Penalty Killing stats.

GA/G:
Dallas - 2.10 (3/16)
Detroit - 2.00 (2/16)

Goalies:
Dallas - Marty Turco, 8-4, 1.73 GAA, 92.9% Save
Detroit - Chris Osgood, 6-0, 1.52 GAA, 93.7% Save
- Dominik Hasek, 2-2. 2.91 GAA, 88.8% Save

PP% Regular Season/Postseason (Rank out of 30/16)
Dallas - 18.1 (13th) /25.0 (2nd)
Detroit - 20.7 (3rd) / 20.4 (9th)

PK% Regular Season/Postseason (Rank out of 30/16)
Dallas - 85.6 (2nd) / 85.7 (4th)
Detroit - 84.0 (8th) /85.4 (5th)

These are two evenly matched squads on the defensive and specialty teams. The key to me is the offensive explosiveness of the Red Wings ...

Goals For:
Dallas - 3.80 (1st/16)
Detroit - 2.92 (5th/16)

... particularly the play of Johann Franzen, who leads the NHL in 11 playoff goals. San Jose and Anaheim, during streches of their series, seemed to be able to tighten up and stifle Dallas a bit, particularly through either strong forecheck pressure which limited transition opportunities or clogging up the neutral zone. Detroit plays a strong enough forecheck that teams rarely get a chance to breathe once they gain the puck. Detroit can match Dallas's physical play and even exceed it. They've shown through streches of the playoffs that it was nearly impossible to take the puck away from them, particuarly on the power play.

Psychologically, Dallas seems to have exceeded expectations. Detroit, after blowing a 2-1 lead against Anaheim last year, is focused on returning to the Finals for the first time in 6 years. Mike Babcock has been here before, leading those same Ducks back in 2003 while Dave Tippett is making his first conference finals appearance. Dallas does have strong leadership through key guys like Cup winners Mike Modano, Brendan Morrow, Sergei Zubov, and Jere Lehtenen.

Dallas has the skill and toughness to match up well with them and I do believe this will be a close series, but Detroit is the team with the slight edge, both offensively as well as in the intangibles. I'll be shocked if this series goes either 4 or 5 games, one way or another.

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